Ten-year recurrence rates for breast cancer subtypes in the Netherlands: A large population-based study

Marissa C. van Maaren* (Corresponding Author), Linda de Munck, Luc J.A. Strobbe, Gabe S. Sonke, Pieter J. Westenend, Marjolein L. Smidt, Philip M.P. Poortmans, Sabine Siesling

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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Here we report for the first time the relation between breast cancer subtypes and 10-year recurrence rates and mortality in the Netherlands. All operated women diagnosed with invasive non-metastatic breast cancer in 2005 in the Netherlands were included. Patients were classified into breast cancer subtypes according to ER, PR, HER2 status and grade: luminal A, luminal B, HER2 positive and triple negative. Percentages and hazards of recurrence were compared among subtypes. Adjusted 10-year overall (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were calculated using multivariable Cox regression. Of 8,062 patients, 4,482 (56%) were luminal A, 2,090 (26%) luminal B, 504 (6%) HER2 positive and 986 (12%) triple negative. Local recurrences (7.5%) and distant metastases (25.6%) occurred most often in HER2 positive disease and the least often in luminal A (3.7% and 9.5%, respectively). Regional recurrences were most often diagnosed in triple negative disease (5.2%), and the least often in luminal A (1.7%). HER2 positive and triple negative subtypes had the highest recurrence rates in the second year, while luminal A and B showed a more continuous pattern over time, with lobular tumours recurring more often. After adjustment for differences in baseline characteristics, triple negative disease showed worse 10-year OS and triple negative and HER2 positive disease had the lowest 10-year RFS. In the Netherlands, breast cancer subtypes are important predictors for 10-year recurrence rates. Knowledge on recurrence and survival rates according to these different subtypes, in combination with other prognostic factors, can support patient-tailored treatment and individualised follow-up.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)263-272
Number of pages10
JournalInternational journal of cancer
Issue number2
Early online date28 Oct 2018
Publication statusPublished - 15 Jan 2019


  • UT-Hybrid-D
  • breast cancer
  • breast cancer subtypes
  • hazard
  • population-based
  • recurrence
  • 10-year follow-up
  • 22/4 OA procedure


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