Abstract
To reduce the cost of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for time-consuming processes (like Finite Elements), a Bayesian interpolation method is coupled with the Monte Carlo technique. It is, therefore, possible to reduce the number of realizations in MC by interpolation. Besides, there is a possibility of thought about priors. In other words, this study tries to speed up the Monte Carlo process by taking into the account the prior knowledge about the problem and reduce the number of simulations. Moreover, the information of previous simulations aids to judge accuracy of the prediction in every step. As a result, a narrower confidence interval comes with a higher number of simulations. This paper shows the general methodology, algorithm, and result
of the suggested approach in the form of a numerical example
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | Safety, reliability and risk analysis |
| Subtitle of host publication | theory, methods and applications |
| Editors | Sebastian Martorell, C. Guedes Soares, Julie Barnett |
| Publisher | CRC Press (Taylor & Francis) |
| Pages | 717-723 |
| ISBN (Electronic) | 9781482266481 |
| ISBN (Print) | 9780415485135 |
| Publication status | Published - 2009 |
| Externally published | Yes |
| Event | Joint ESREL 2008 & 17th Society for Risk Analysis, SRA-Europe Conference 2008 - Valencia, Spain Duration: 22 Sept 2008 → 25 Sept 2008 |
Conference
| Conference | Joint ESREL 2008 & 17th Society for Risk Analysis, SRA-Europe Conference 2008 |
|---|---|
| Abbreviated title | SRA-E |
| Country/Territory | Spain |
| City | Valencia |
| Period | 22/09/08 → 25/09/08 |
Keywords
- n/a OA procedure