Abstract
A probabilistic framework is developed to calculate the crossdike failure probability by overtopping waves on grasscovered dikes. The crossdike failure probability of dike profiles including transitions and damages can be computed to find the most likely location of failure and quantify the decrease in the failure probability when this location is strengthened. The erosion depth along the dike profile is calculated using probability distributions for the water level, wind speed and dike cover strength. Failure is defined as the exceedance of 20 cm erosion depth when the topsoil of the grass cover is eroded. The crossdike failure probability shows that the landward toe is the most vulnerable location for wave overtopping. Herein, the quality of the grass cover significantly affects the failure probability up to a factor 1000. Next, the failure probability for different types of damages on the landward slope are calculated. In case of a damage where the grass cover is still intact and strong, the dike is most likely to fail at the landward toe due to high flow velocity and additional load due to the slope change. However, when the grass cover is also damaged, the probability of failure at the damage is between 4 and 125 times higher than for a regular dike profile.
Original language  English 

Article number  690 
Number of pages  22 
Journal  Water 
Volume  13 
Issue number  5 
DOIs  
Publication status  Published  3 Mar 2021 
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PhD Work Vera van Bergeijk
van Bergeijk, V. M. (Creator), Warmink, J. J. (Supervisor) & Hulscher, S. J. M. H. (Supervisor), Areda (University of Twente), 17 Feb 2022
https://areda.utsp.utwente.nl:9000/minio/etmfs/PhDWorkVanBergeijk_20220211_OvertoppingFlow.zip
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