The effect of incentives and technology on the adoption of electric motorcycles : a stated choice experiment in Vietnam

Many Asian cities are experiencing rapid growth in the ownership of personal gasoline-powered motorcycles, a shift away from relatively low-emitting modes of transportation that is contributing to deteriorated air quality. Electric two-wheelers have the potential for significant air pollution reductions as an alternative to gasoline-powered motorcycles; however, they have yet to penetrate many Asian markets. While previous research has examined the adoption of cleaner alternatives to gasoline-powered automobiles (e.g., hybrid electric cars), similar work on motorcycle alternatives is lacking. This study uses a stated preference survey of households in Hanoi, Vietnam to analyze adoption of electric two-wheelers, while focusing on the effects of economic incentives (e.g., differential sales taxes and fuel prices) and technological improvements (e.g., more efficient batteries). A choice model is estimated and market shares are calculated for scenarios involving different levels of electric two-wheeler technology, gasoline prices, and sales tax rates. Results indicate that technological improvements and economic incentives, particularly sales taxes, have significant effects on adoption.