The effects of motivational factors on car use: A multidisciplinary modelling approach

Linda Steg*, Karst Geurs, Michiel Ras

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

44 Citations (Scopus)


Current transport models usually do not take motivational factors into account, and if they do, it is only implicitly. This paper presents a modelling approach aimed at explicitly examining the effects of motivational factors on present and future car use in the Netherlands. A car-use forecasting model for the years 2010 and 2020 was constructed on the basis of (i) a multinominal regression analysis, which revealed the importance of a motivational variable (viz., problem awareness) in explaining current car-use behaviour separate from socio-demographic and socio-economic variables, and (ii) a population model constructed to forecast the size and composition of the Dutch population. The results show that car use could be better explained by taking motivational factors explicitly into account, and that the level of car use forecast might change significantly if changes in motivations are assumed. The question on how motivational factors could be incorporated into current (Dutch) national transport models was also addressed.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)789-806
Number of pages18
JournalTransportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
Issue number9
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2001
Externally publishedYes


  • Car use
  • Forecasts
  • Motivations
  • Scenarios
  • Transport models


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