The impact of electricity tariffs on residential demand side flexibility: results of bottom-up load profile modeling

Marian Hayn, Anne Zander, Wolf Fichtner, Stefan Nickel, Valentin Bertsch*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

23 Citations (Scopus)
29 Downloads (Pure)


Energy systems based on renewable energy sources require increasing demand side flexibility. Also, changes in the underlying cost structure, i.e., decreasing variable costs and increasing infrastructure investments as well as varying consumer needs should be reflected in the setup of future markets, including retail markets and tariffs. While various studies focus solely on tariffs with variable energy prices to leverage residential demand side flexibility, we incorporate tariffs with capacity-based price components in our analysis. The latter enable electricity providers to offer more differentiated tariffs, considering individual consumer needs and a balanced cost allocation. To compare the impact of different tariffs on residential demand side flexibility, we develop a bottom-up load model. This model not only simulates but also optimizes residential load profiles in the presence of different tariffs. The model is calibrated based on data from a large-scale field trial. Our results show that tariffs with variable energy prices induce larger demand side flexibility, but the impact of tariffs with variable capacity prices is more predictable and reliable from a suppliers perspective. Potential regulatory adjustments are identified enabling sustainable business models, rewarding demand side flexibility and facilitating the technical implementation.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)759-792
Number of pages34
JournalEnergy Systems
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 1 Aug 2018
Externally publishedYes


  • Demand side flexibility
  • Load shifting potential
  • Residential bottom-up load model
  • Variable capacity prices
  • Variable energy prices
  • n/a OA procedure

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