The implications of alternative developer decision-making strategies on land-use and land-cover in an agent-based land market model

D.C. Parker, S. Sun, T. Filatova, N. Magliocca, Q. Huang, D.G. Brown, R. Riolo

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)
33 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Land developers play a key role in land-use and land cover change, as they directly make land development decisions and bridge the land and housing markets. Developers choose and purchase land from rural land owners, develop and subdivide land into parcel lots, build structures on lots, and sell houses to residential households. Developers determine the initial landscaping states of developed parcels, affecting the state and future trajectories of residential land cover, as well as land market activity. Despite their importance, developers are underrepresented in land use change models due to paucity of data and knowledge regarding their decision-making. Drawing on economic theories and empirical literature, we have developed a generalized model of land development decision-making within a broader agent-based model of land-use change via land markets. Developer’s strategies combine their specialty in developing of particular subdivision types, their perception of and attitude towards market uncertainty, and their learning and adaptation strategies based on the dynamics of the simulated land and housing markets. We present a new agent-based land market model that includes these elements. The model will be used to experiment with these different development decision-making methods and compare their impacts on model outputs, particularly on the quantity and spatial pattern of resultant land use changes. Coupling between the land market and a carbon sequestration model, developed for the larger SLUCE2 project, will allow us, in future work, to examine how different developer’s strategies will affect the carbon balance in residential landscapes
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationiEMSs 2012 Proceedings
EditorsR. Seppelt, A.A. Voinov, S. Lange, D. Bankamp
Place of PublicationLeipzig
PublisherInternational Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs)
Pages1-8
ISBN (Print)978-88-9035-742-8
Publication statusPublished - 3 Jul 2012
Event6th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software 2012: Managing Resources of a Limited Planet: Pathways and Visions under Uncertainty - Leipzig, Germany
Duration: 1 Jul 20125 Jul 2012
Conference number: 6

Conference

Conference6th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software 2012
CountryGermany
CityLeipzig
Period1/07/125/07/12

Keywords

  • METIS-286981
  • IR-81053

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