The influence of parametric uncertainty on the relationships between HBV model parameters and climatic characteristics

An HBV rainfall–runoff model was applied to test the influence of climatic characteristics on model parameter values. The methodology consisted of the calibration and cross-validation of the HBV model on a series of 5-year periods for four selected catchments (Axe, Kamp, Wieprz and Wimmera). The model parameters were optimized using the SCEM-UA method which allowed for their uncertainty also to be assessed. Nine climatic indices were selected for the analysis of their influence on model parameters, and divided into water-related and temperature-related indices. This allowed the dependence of HBV model parameters on climate characteristics to be explored following their response to climate change conditioned on the catchment’s physical characteristics. The Pearson correlation coefficient and weighted Pearson correlation coefficient were used to test the dependence. Most parameters showed a statistically significant dependence on several climatic indices in all catchments. The study shows that the results of the correlation analysis with and without parametric uncertainty taken into account differ significantly.