The irrational Dutch voter: On causal heterogeneity in basis of evaluation

Elections in the Netherlands have transformed from the dullest in the world in the 1950s to the most volatile in recent decades. In light of this, the question arises what factors account for the increased volatility of the Dutch electorate. This paper examines one possible answer: voters have changed the basis upon which they evaluate the competing parties. Findings indicate that this is indeed the case, although it appears not to be the whole story. Furthermore, the findings indicate that the basis of evaluation varies across parties. This has important implications for modelling vote choice. More specifically, the findings imply that the use of spatial models, which are arguably the most popular theoretical framework of electoral researchers, is highly problematic.