The next widespread bamboo flowering poses a massive risk to the giant panda

Zhaoxue Tian, Xuehua Liu (Corresponding Author), Zhiyong Fan, Jianguo Liu, Stuart L. Pimm, Lanmei Liu, Claude Garcia, Melissa Songer, Xiaoming Shao, A.K. Skidmore, Tiejun Wang, Yuke Zhang, Youde Chang, Xuelin Jin, Minghao Gong, Lingguo Zhou, Xiangbo He, Gaodi Dang, Yun Zhu, Qiong Cai

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Abstract

The IUCN Red List has downgraded several species from “endangered” to “vulnerable” that still have largely unknown extinction risks. We consider one of those downgraded species, the giant panda, a bamboo specialist. Massive bamboo flowering could be a natural disaster for giant pandas. Using scenario analysis, we explored possible impacts of the next bamboo flowering in the Qinling and Minshan Mountains that are home to most giant pandas. Our results showed that the Qinling Mountains could experience large-scale bamboo flowering leading to a high risk of widespread food shortages for the giant pandas by 2020. The Minshan Mountains could similarly experience a large-scale bamboo flowering with a high risk for giant pandas between 2020 and 2030 without suitable alternative habitat in the surrounding areas. These scenarios highlight thus-far unforeseen dangers of conserving giant pandas in a fragmented habitat. We recommend advance measures to protect giant panda from severe population crashes when flowering happens. This study also suggests the need to anticipate and manage long-term risks to other downgraded species.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)180-187
Number of pages8
JournalBiological conservation
Volume234
Early online date29 Mar 2019
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2019

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Ailuropoda melanoleuca
bamboo
bamboos
flowering
mountain
mountains
extinction risk
Red List
habitat
natural disaster
food shortages
disasters
habitat fragmentation
food
extinction
habitats

Keywords

  • ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE
  • ITC-HYBRID

Cite this

Tian, Z., Liu, X., Fan, Z., Liu, J., Pimm, S. L., Liu, L., ... Cai, Q. (2019). The next widespread bamboo flowering poses a massive risk to the giant panda. Biological conservation, 234, 180-187. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.03.030
Tian, Zhaoxue ; Liu, Xuehua ; Fan, Zhiyong ; Liu, Jianguo ; Pimm, Stuart L. ; Liu, Lanmei ; Garcia, Claude ; Songer, Melissa ; Shao, Xiaoming ; Skidmore, A.K. ; Wang, Tiejun ; Zhang, Yuke ; Chang, Youde ; Jin, Xuelin ; Gong, Minghao ; Zhou, Lingguo ; He, Xiangbo ; Dang, Gaodi ; Zhu, Yun ; Cai, Qiong. / The next widespread bamboo flowering poses a massive risk to the giant panda. In: Biological conservation. 2019 ; Vol. 234. pp. 180-187.
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abstract = "The IUCN Red List has downgraded several species from “endangered” to “vulnerable” that still have largely unknown extinction risks. We consider one of those downgraded species, the giant panda, a bamboo specialist. Massive bamboo flowering could be a natural disaster for giant pandas. Using scenario analysis, we explored possible impacts of the next bamboo flowering in the Qinling and Minshan Mountains that are home to most giant pandas. Our results showed that the Qinling Mountains could experience large-scale bamboo flowering leading to a high risk of widespread food shortages for the giant pandas by 2020. The Minshan Mountains could similarly experience a large-scale bamboo flowering with a high risk for giant pandas between 2020 and 2030 without suitable alternative habitat in the surrounding areas. These scenarios highlight thus-far unforeseen dangers of conserving giant pandas in a fragmented habitat. We recommend advance measures to protect giant panda from severe population crashes when flowering happens. This study also suggests the need to anticipate and manage long-term risks to other downgraded species.",
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Tian, Z, Liu, X, Fan, Z, Liu, J, Pimm, SL, Liu, L, Garcia, C, Songer, M, Shao, X, Skidmore, AK, Wang, T, Zhang, Y, Chang, Y, Jin, X, Gong, M, Zhou, L, He, X, Dang, G, Zhu, Y & Cai, Q 2019, 'The next widespread bamboo flowering poses a massive risk to the giant panda' Biological conservation, vol. 234, pp. 180-187. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.03.030

The next widespread bamboo flowering poses a massive risk to the giant panda. / Tian, Zhaoxue; Liu, Xuehua (Corresponding Author); Fan, Zhiyong; Liu, Jianguo; Pimm, Stuart L.; Liu, Lanmei; Garcia, Claude; Songer, Melissa; Shao, Xiaoming; Skidmore, A.K.; Wang, Tiejun; Zhang, Yuke; Chang, Youde; Jin, Xuelin; Gong, Minghao; Zhou, Lingguo; He, Xiangbo; Dang, Gaodi; Zhu, Yun; Cai, Qiong.

In: Biological conservation, Vol. 234, 06.2019, p. 180-187.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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AU - Tian, Zhaoxue

AU - Liu, Xuehua

AU - Fan, Zhiyong

AU - Liu, Jianguo

AU - Pimm, Stuart L.

AU - Liu, Lanmei

AU - Garcia, Claude

AU - Songer, Melissa

AU - Shao, Xiaoming

AU - Skidmore, A.K.

AU - Wang, Tiejun

AU - Zhang, Yuke

AU - Chang, Youde

AU - Jin, Xuelin

AU - Gong, Minghao

AU - Zhou, Lingguo

AU - He, Xiangbo

AU - Dang, Gaodi

AU - Zhu, Yun

AU - Cai, Qiong

PY - 2019/6

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N2 - The IUCN Red List has downgraded several species from “endangered” to “vulnerable” that still have largely unknown extinction risks. We consider one of those downgraded species, the giant panda, a bamboo specialist. Massive bamboo flowering could be a natural disaster for giant pandas. Using scenario analysis, we explored possible impacts of the next bamboo flowering in the Qinling and Minshan Mountains that are home to most giant pandas. Our results showed that the Qinling Mountains could experience large-scale bamboo flowering leading to a high risk of widespread food shortages for the giant pandas by 2020. The Minshan Mountains could similarly experience a large-scale bamboo flowering with a high risk for giant pandas between 2020 and 2030 without suitable alternative habitat in the surrounding areas. These scenarios highlight thus-far unforeseen dangers of conserving giant pandas in a fragmented habitat. We recommend advance measures to protect giant panda from severe population crashes when flowering happens. This study also suggests the need to anticipate and manage long-term risks to other downgraded species.

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