The preoperative CT-scan can help to predict postoperative complications after pancreatoduodenectomy

After pancreatoduodenectomy, complication rates are up to 40%. To predict the risk of developing postoperative pancreatic fistula or severe complications, various factors were evaluated. 110 consecutive patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy at our institute between January 2012 and September 2014 with complete CT scan were retrospectively identified. Pre-, per-, and postoperative patients and pathological information were gathered. The CT-scans were analysed for the diameter of the pancreatic duct, attenuation of the pancreas, and the visceral fat area. All data was statistically analysed for predicting POPF and severe complications by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The POPF rate was 18%. The VFA measured at umbilicus (OR 1.01; 95% CI = 1.00-1.02; P=0.011) was an independent predictor for POPF. The severe complications rate was 33%. Independent predictors were BMI (OR 1.24; 95% CI = 1.10-1.42; P=0.001), ASA class III (OR 17.10; 95% CI = 1.60-182.88; P=0.019), and mean HU (OR 0.98; 95% CI = 0.96-1.00; P=0.024). In conclusion, VFA measured at the umbilicus seems to be the best predictor for POPF. BMI, ASA III, and the mean HU of the pancreatic body are independent predictors for severe complications following PD.