Thirty-year analysis of a changing river system using Bayesian rating curves

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Abstract

The River Waal is the largest downstream distributary of the Rhine. It has a long history of human intervention and serves important economical, ecological and recre­ ational functions. For the past fifteen years, large-scale flood mitigation interventions have been carried out to lower flood risk at extreme discharges. Using a thirty-year dataset of water levels and discharges derived from ADCP and Ott-mill flow velocity measurements, we ana­ lyze the trends in water levels as a function of discharge. The number of datapoints is limited by the number of measurement campaigns carried out, as well as limited by the range of dis­ charges occurring in a given year. We take this data scarcity, as well as variance in the data-points, into account using multistage Bayesian rating curves. We analyze thirty years of data to detect trends in water levels. Results clearly show a linear trend attributed to autonomous bed degradation. However, expected deviations from the linear trend resulting from human intervention were not found. We discuss various explanations for the resulting trends, as well as future work to reduce the uncertainty of rating curves.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationRiver Flow 2020
Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of the 10th Conference on Fluvial Hydraulics (Delft, Netherlands, 7-10 July 2020)
EditorsWim Uijttewaal, Mario J. Franca, Daniel Valero, Victor Chavarrias, Claudia Ylla Arbos, Ralph Schielen, Alessandra Crosato
Place of PublicationLondon
PublisherCRC Press/Balkema
Pages1022-1026
ISBN (Electronic)978-1-003-11095-8
ISBN (Print)978-0-367-62773-7
Publication statusPublished - 2020
Event10th Conference on Fluvial Hydraulics, River Flow 2020 - Delft, Netherlands
Duration: 7 Jul 202010 Jul 2020
Conference number: 10

Conference

Conference10th Conference on Fluvial Hydraulics, River Flow 2020
Abbreviated titleRiver Flow
CountryNetherlands
CityDelft
Period7/07/2010/07/20

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