Towards an understanding of wildfire risk at the wildland urban interface as a socio-ecological system

Wildfires increasingly affect urban development, especially at the wildland urban interface (WUI), where human activity and natural systems meet. Urban expansion exposes more residents to fire hazards and wildlands to urban-caused ignitions. This study examined WUI dynamics in Cape Town South Africa, at two scales: citywide fire and landcover patterns (1990–2019) and in depth the informal settlement of Imizamo Yethu (IY), situated next to the Table Mountain National park home to fire-dependent fynbos.

Findings show urban expansion has reduced annual burned area, reflecting a suppression-first approach that conflicts with environmental policy aimed at conserving fynbos. Reduced fire frequency has led to fuel accumulation, contributing to large, destructive fires such as those in Table Mountain National Park in 2021 and 2025.

The study investigated residents’ motivations for living in IY. Local leaders were interviewed, and residents surveyed using a framework combining Turner’s (1968) informal settlement resident typology, Protection Motivation Theory, and place attachment. The investigation revealed both Turner’s classical resident types and new subtypes with distinct reasons for staying or leaving. After a fire in August 2021, a follow-up survey found that residents who lost homes felt more vulnerable but were less likely to engage in risk-reduction actions immediately after the event, highlighting timing as crucial for interventions.

An agent-based model (ABM) was then developed in NetLogo to simulate the effects of five fire management strategies on settlement and wildland outcomes. Results showed that controlled burning combined with suppression provided the best outcomes for both residents and fynbos.

This research contributes multiple frameworks for fire-landcover and policy change analysis and micro-level residential decision-making including ABM modelling. It demonstrates that WUI fire risk management involves unavoidable trade-offs. The findings provide evidence to guide integrated fire management balancing human safety, ecological needs, and political realities.