It is crucial for low flow management that information about the impacts of climate change on low flows and the uncertainties therein becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess the uncertainty in climate change for the River Meuse in Northwestern Europe. A hydrological model has been used to simulate low flows for current and changed climate conditions. The uncertainty in the hydrological model is represented by the uncertainty in its parameters. Climate change results in an increase of the average annual discharge deficit (a low flow measure) of about 2.6 108 m3 or 35%. This impact is considerable, resulting in an increase of water shortages in the Meuse basin during low flow periods. The uncertainty in this impact is about 10% as a result of uncertainties in climate change and HBV parameters, and does not disguise the climate change signal.
|Title of host publication||Climate variability and change: Hydrological impacts. Proceedings of the fifth FRIEND World Conference Havana Cuba, 27 November -1 December 2006. IAHS publication 308|
|Editors||Siegfried Demuth, Alan Gustard, Eduardo Planos, Fred Scatena, Eric Servat|
|Place of Publication||Havana, Cuba|
|Number of pages||708|
|Publication status||Published - 27 Nov 2006|
- discharge deficit
- Regional Climate Model
- fuzzy objective function
- Climate Change
- Low flows
- Meuse basin
- HBV model
- Monte Carlo analysis
Booij, M. J., Huisjes, M., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2006). Uncertainty in climate change impacts on low flows. In S. Demuth, A. Gustard, E. Planos, F. Scatena, & E. Servat (Eds.), Climate variability and change: Hydrological impacts. Proceedings of the fifth FRIEND World Conference Havana Cuba, 27 November -1 December 2006. IAHS publication 308 (pp. 401-406). (IAHS publication; No. 308). Havana, Cuba: IAHS Press.