Uncertainty in climate change impacts on low flows

Martijn J. Booij, Martijn Huisjes, Arjen Ysbert Hoekstra

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Abstract

It is crucial for low flow management that information about the impacts of climate change on low flows and the uncertainties therein becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess the uncertainty in climate change for the River Meuse in Northwestern Europe. A hydrological model has been used to simulate low flows for current and changed climate conditions. The uncertainty in the hydrological model is represented by the uncertainty in its parameters. Climate change results in an increase of the average annual discharge deficit (a low flow measure) of about 2.6 108 m3 or 35%. This impact is considerable, resulting in an increase of water shortages in the Meuse basin during low flow periods. The uncertainty in this impact is about 10% as a result of uncertainties in climate change and HBV parameters, and does not disguise the climate change signal.
Original languageUndefined
Title of host publicationClimate variability and change: Hydrological impacts. Proceedings of the fifth FRIEND World Conference Havana Cuba, 27 November -1 December 2006. IAHS publication 308
EditorsSiegfried Demuth, Alan Gustard, Eduardo Planos, Fred Scatena, Eric Servat
Place of PublicationHavana, Cuba
PublisherIAHS Press
Pages401-406
Number of pages708
ISBN (Print)1-90150278-7
Publication statusPublished - 27 Nov 2006
Eventthe fifth FRIEND World Conference Havana Cuba, 27 November -1 December 2006.: Climate variability and change: Hydrological impacts. Proceedings of the fifth FRIEND World Conference Havana Cuba, 27 November -1 December 2006. IAHS publication 308 - Havana, Cuba
Duration: 27 Nov 20061 Dec 2006

Publication series

NameIAHS publication
PublisherIAHS Press
Number308
ISSN (Print)0144-7815

Conference

Conferencethe fifth FRIEND World Conference Havana Cuba, 27 November -1 December 2006.
CityHavana, Cuba
Period27/11/061/12/06

Keywords

  • METIS-234988
  • Uncertainty
  • discharge deficit
  • Regional Climate Model
  • fuzzy objective function
  • IR-78711
  • Climate Change
  • Low flows
  • Meuse basin
  • HBV model
  • Monte Carlo analysis

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