Uncertainty in climate change impacts on low flows

Martijn J. Booij; Martijn Huisjes; Arjen Ysbert Hoekstra

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on low flows

Martijn J. Booij, Martijn Huisjes, Arjen Ysbert Hoekstra

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

11 Citations (Scopus)

102 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

It is crucial for low flow management that information about the impacts of climate change on low flows and the uncertainties therein becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess the uncertainty in climate change for the River Meuse in Northwestern Europe. A hydrological model has been used to simulate low flows for current and changed climate conditions. The uncertainty in the hydrological model is represented by the uncertainty in its parameters. Climate change results in an increase of the average annual discharge deficit (a low flow measure) of about 2.6 108 m3 or 35%. This impact is considerable, resulting in an increase of water shortages in the Meuse basin during low flow periods. The uncertainty in this impact is about 10% as a result of uncertainties in climate change and HBV parameters, and does not disguise the climate change signal.

Original language	Undefined
Title of host publication	Climate variability and change: Hydrological impacts. Proceedings of the fifth FRIEND World Conference Havana Cuba, 27 November -1 December 2006. IAHS publication 308
Editors	Siegfried Demuth, Alan Gustard, Eduardo Planos, Fred Scatena, Eric Servat
Place of Publication	Havana, Cuba
Publisher	IAHS Press
Pages	401-406
Number of pages	708
ISBN (Print)	1-90150278-7
Publication status	Published - 27 Nov 2006
Event	the fifth FRIEND World Conference Havana Cuba, 27 November -1 December 2006.: Climate variability and change: Hydrological impacts. Proceedings of the fifth FRIEND World Conference Havana Cuba, 27 November -1 December 2006. IAHS publication 308 - Havana, Cuba Duration: 27 Nov 2006 → 1 Dec 2006

Publication series

Name	IAHS publication
Publisher	IAHS Press
Number	308
ISSN (Print)	0144-7815

Conference

Conference	the fifth FRIEND World Conference Havana Cuba, 27 November -1 December 2006.
City	Havana, Cuba
Period	27/11/06 → 1/12/06

Keywords

METIS-234988
Uncertainty
discharge deficit
Regional Climate Model
fuzzy objective function
IR-78711
Climate Change
Low flows
Meuse basin
HBV model
Monte Carlo analysis

Access to Document

uncertainty

http://iahs.info/redbooks/a308/308068.htm

Cite this

Booij, M. J., Huisjes, M., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2006). Uncertainty in climate change impacts on low flows. In S. Demuth, A. Gustard, E. Planos, F. Scatena, & E. Servat (Eds.), Climate variability and change: Hydrological impacts. Proceedings of the fifth FRIEND World Conference Havana Cuba, 27 November -1 December 2006. IAHS publication 308 (pp. 401-406). (IAHS publication; No. 308). IAHS Press. http://iahs.info/redbooks/a308/308068.htm

Booij, Martijn J. ; Huisjes, Martijn ; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert. / Uncertainty in climate change impacts on low flows. Climate variability and change: Hydrological impacts. Proceedings of the fifth FRIEND World Conference Havana Cuba, 27 November -1 December 2006. IAHS publication 308. editor / Siegfried Demuth ; Alan Gustard ; Eduardo Planos ; Fred Scatena ; Eric Servat. Havana, Cuba : IAHS Press, 2006. pp. 401-406 (IAHS publication; 308).

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abstract = "It is crucial for low flow management that information about the impacts of climate change on low flows and the uncertainties therein becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess the uncertainty in climate change for the River Meuse in Northwestern Europe. A hydrological model has been used to simulate low flows for current and changed climate conditions. The uncertainty in the hydrological model is represented by the uncertainty in its parameters. Climate change results in an increase of the average annual discharge deficit (a low flow measure) of about 2.6 108 m3 or 35%. This impact is considerable, resulting in an increase of water shortages in the Meuse basin during low flow periods. The uncertainty in this impact is about 10% as a result of uncertainties in climate change and HBV parameters, and does not disguise the climate change signal.",

keywords = "METIS-234988, Uncertainty, discharge deficit, Regional Climate Model, fuzzy objective function, IR-78711, Climate Change, Low flows, Meuse basin, HBV model, Monte Carlo analysis",

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Booij, MJ, Huisjes, M & Hoekstra, AY 2006, Uncertainty in climate change impacts on low flows. in S Demuth, A Gustard, E Planos, F Scatena & E Servat (eds), Climate variability and change: Hydrological impacts. Proceedings of the fifth FRIEND World Conference Havana Cuba, 27 November -1 December 2006. IAHS publication 308. IAHS publication, no. 308, IAHS Press, Havana, Cuba, pp. 401-406, the fifth FRIEND World Conference Havana Cuba, 27 November -1 December 2006., Havana, Cuba, 27/11/06. <http://iahs.info/redbooks/a308/308068.htm>

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on low flows. / Booij, Martijn J.; Huisjes, Martijn; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert.

Climate variability and change: Hydrological impacts. Proceedings of the fifth FRIEND World Conference Havana Cuba, 27 November -1 December 2006. IAHS publication 308. ed. / Siegfried Demuth; Alan Gustard; Eduardo Planos; Fred Scatena; Eric Servat. Havana, Cuba : IAHS Press, 2006. p. 401-406 (IAHS publication; No. 308).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Uncertainty in climate change impacts on low flows

AU - Booij, Martijn J.

AU - Huisjes, Martijn

AU - Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert

PY - 2006/11/27

Y1 - 2006/11/27

N2 - It is crucial for low flow management that information about the impacts of climate change on low flows and the uncertainties therein becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess the uncertainty in climate change for the River Meuse in Northwestern Europe. A hydrological model has been used to simulate low flows for current and changed climate conditions. The uncertainty in the hydrological model is represented by the uncertainty in its parameters. Climate change results in an increase of the average annual discharge deficit (a low flow measure) of about 2.6 108 m3 or 35%. This impact is considerable, resulting in an increase of water shortages in the Meuse basin during low flow periods. The uncertainty in this impact is about 10% as a result of uncertainties in climate change and HBV parameters, and does not disguise the climate change signal.

AB - It is crucial for low flow management that information about the impacts of climate change on low flows and the uncertainties therein becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess the uncertainty in climate change for the River Meuse in Northwestern Europe. A hydrological model has been used to simulate low flows for current and changed climate conditions. The uncertainty in the hydrological model is represented by the uncertainty in its parameters. Climate change results in an increase of the average annual discharge deficit (a low flow measure) of about 2.6 108 m3 or 35%. This impact is considerable, resulting in an increase of water shortages in the Meuse basin during low flow periods. The uncertainty in this impact is about 10% as a result of uncertainties in climate change and HBV parameters, and does not disguise the climate change signal.

KW - METIS-234988

KW - Uncertainty

KW - discharge deficit

KW - Regional Climate Model

KW - fuzzy objective function

KW - IR-78711

KW - Climate Change

KW - Low flows

KW - Meuse basin

KW - HBV model

KW - Monte Carlo analysis

M3 - Conference contribution

SN - 1-90150278-7

T3 - IAHS publication

SP - 401

EP - 406

BT - Climate variability and change: Hydrological impacts. Proceedings of the fifth FRIEND World Conference Havana Cuba, 27 November -1 December 2006. IAHS publication 308

A2 - Demuth, Siegfried

A2 - Gustard, Alan

A2 - Planos, Eduardo

A2 - Scatena, Fred

A2 - Servat, Eric

PB - IAHS Press

CY - Havana, Cuba

Y2 - 27 November 2006 through 1 December 2006

ER -

Booij MJ, Huisjes M, Hoekstra AY. Uncertainty in climate change impacts on low flows. In Demuth S, Gustard A, Planos E, Scatena F, Servat E, editors, Climate variability and change: Hydrological impacts. Proceedings of the fifth FRIEND World Conference Havana Cuba, 27 November -1 December 2006. IAHS publication 308. Havana, Cuba: IAHS Press. 2006. p. 401-406. (IAHS publication; 308).