Uncertainty in climate change impacts on low flows

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Abstract

It is crucial for low flow management that information about the impacts of climate change on low flows and the uncertainties therein becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess the uncertainty in climate change for the River Meuse in Northwestern Europe. A hydrological model has been used to simulate low flows for current and changed climate conditions. The uncertainty in the hydrological model is represented by the uncertainty in its parameters. Climate change results in an increase of the average annual discharge deficit (a low flow measure) of about 2.6 108 m3 or 35%. This impact is considerable, resulting in an increase of water shortages in the Meuse basin during low flow periods. The uncertainty in this impact is about 10% as a result of uncertainties in climate change and HBV parameters, and does not disguise the climate change signal.
Original languageUndefined
Title of host publicationClimate variability and change: Hydrological impacts. Proceedings of the fifth FRIEND World Conference Havana Cuba, 27 November -1 December 2006. IAHS publication 308
EditorsSiegfried Demuth, Alan Gustard, Eduardo Planos, Fred Scatena, Eric Servat
Place of PublicationHavana, Cuba
PublisherIAHS Press
Pages401-406
Number of pages708
ISBN (Print)1-90150278-7
Publication statusPublished - 27 Nov 2006

Publication series

NameIAHS publication
PublisherIAHS Press
Number308
ISSN (Print)0144-7815

Keywords

  • METIS-234988
  • Uncertainty
  • discharge deficit
  • Regional Climate Model
  • fuzzy objective function
  • IR-78711
  • Climate Change
  • Low flows
  • Meuse basin
  • HBV model
  • Monte Carlo analysis

Cite this

Booij, M. J., Huisjes, M., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2006). Uncertainty in climate change impacts on low flows. In S. Demuth, A. Gustard, E. Planos, F. Scatena, & E. Servat (Eds.), Climate variability and change: Hydrological impacts. Proceedings of the fifth FRIEND World Conference Havana Cuba, 27 November -1 December 2006. IAHS publication 308 (pp. 401-406). (IAHS publication; No. 308). Havana, Cuba: IAHS Press.