Uncertainty of design water levels due to combined bed form and vegetation roughness in the Dutch river Waal, doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12014

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Abstract

Two-dimensional hydrodynamic models are frequently used for flood protection studies to compute inundation patterns and to estimate potential economic damage. However, the modelling of river processes involves numerous uncertainties. Knowledge of the type and magnitude of uncertainties is crucial for a meaningful interpretation of the model outcomes and its usefulness in decision making. The objective of this study was to quantify the uncertainty in the design water levels due to uncertain bed form and vegetation roughness for the Dutch River Waal. We quantified and combined these sources of uncertainty by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. The results showed that the 95% confidence interval of the design water levels is 0.49m, 0.34m and 0.12m for bed form, vegetation classification and vegetation roughness parameterisation, respectively, and approximately 0.68m for the combined roughness. These uncertainties are significant in view of Dutch river management practice
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)302-318
JournalJournal of flood risk management
Volume6
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 18 Dec 2013

Fingerprint

bedform
Water levels
roughness
water level
Surface roughness
Rivers
river
uncertainty
water
vegetation
vegetation classification
river management
confidence interval
management practice
parameterization
hydrodynamics
decision making
Parameterization
damage
natural disaster

Keywords

  • METIS-282181
  • IR-88256

Cite this

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title = "Uncertainty of design water levels due to combined bed form and vegetation roughness in the Dutch river Waal, doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12014",
abstract = "Two-dimensional hydrodynamic models are frequently used for flood protection studies to compute inundation patterns and to estimate potential economic damage. However, the modelling of river processes involves numerous uncertainties. Knowledge of the type and magnitude of uncertainties is crucial for a meaningful interpretation of the model outcomes and its usefulness in decision making. The objective of this study was to quantify the uncertainty in the design water levels due to uncertain bed form and vegetation roughness for the Dutch River Waal. We quantified and combined these sources of uncertainty by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. The results showed that the 95{\%} confidence interval of the design water levels is 0.49m, 0.34m and 0.12m for bed form, vegetation classification and vegetation roughness parameterisation, respectively, and approximately 0.68m for the combined roughness. These uncertainties are significant in view of Dutch river management practice",
keywords = "METIS-282181, IR-88256",
author = "Warmink, {Jord Jurriaan} and M. Straatsma and Freek Huthoff and Booij, {Martijn J.} and Hulscher, {Suzanne J.M.H.}",
year = "2013",
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doi = "10.1111/jfr3.12014",
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TY - JOUR

T1 - Uncertainty of design water levels due to combined bed form and vegetation roughness in the Dutch river Waal, doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12014

AU - Warmink, Jord Jurriaan

AU - Straatsma, M.

AU - Huthoff, Freek

AU - Booij, Martijn J.

AU - Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.

PY - 2013/12/18

Y1 - 2013/12/18

N2 - Two-dimensional hydrodynamic models are frequently used for flood protection studies to compute inundation patterns and to estimate potential economic damage. However, the modelling of river processes involves numerous uncertainties. Knowledge of the type and magnitude of uncertainties is crucial for a meaningful interpretation of the model outcomes and its usefulness in decision making. The objective of this study was to quantify the uncertainty in the design water levels due to uncertain bed form and vegetation roughness for the Dutch River Waal. We quantified and combined these sources of uncertainty by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. The results showed that the 95% confidence interval of the design water levels is 0.49m, 0.34m and 0.12m for bed form, vegetation classification and vegetation roughness parameterisation, respectively, and approximately 0.68m for the combined roughness. These uncertainties are significant in view of Dutch river management practice

AB - Two-dimensional hydrodynamic models are frequently used for flood protection studies to compute inundation patterns and to estimate potential economic damage. However, the modelling of river processes involves numerous uncertainties. Knowledge of the type and magnitude of uncertainties is crucial for a meaningful interpretation of the model outcomes and its usefulness in decision making. The objective of this study was to quantify the uncertainty in the design water levels due to uncertain bed form and vegetation roughness for the Dutch River Waal. We quantified and combined these sources of uncertainty by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. The results showed that the 95% confidence interval of the design water levels is 0.49m, 0.34m and 0.12m for bed form, vegetation classification and vegetation roughness parameterisation, respectively, and approximately 0.68m for the combined roughness. These uncertainties are significant in view of Dutch river management practice

KW - METIS-282181

KW - IR-88256

U2 - 10.1111/jfr3.12014

DO - 10.1111/jfr3.12014

M3 - Article

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JO - Journal of flood risk management

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