Uncertainty Sources in the Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment of Transport Infrastructure in the Context of Asset Management

Transport infrastructure, crucial for societal functionality and well-being, has important sustainability considerations throughout its life cycle, including resource use, emissions, and socio-economic impacts. Widely adopted life cycle thinking methodologies like LCC, LCA, and S-LCA aim to quantify these impacts, seeking to enhance the positive contributions of infrastructure while mitigating negatives. However, the reliability of these methodologies is often questioned due to the insufficient systematic consideration of uncertainties in the analyses, with deterministic assessments potentially leading to misleading conclusions. While research has progressed, with some LCC and LCA studies incorporating uncertainties, the application in the transport infrastructure field remains constrained and methodologically uneven. This paper seeks to advance the validity of sustainability assessment methodologies in transport infrastructure by reviewing sources, types, and specific triggers of uncertainty in infrastructure LCT studies, providing the reader with relevant descriptions and examples, as well as linking them across different categorizations. This research aims to advance the applicability of uncertainty analysis in the infrastructure LCT field as well as offer recommendations for future research.