Land use regulation is an effective tool to reduce the exposure of urban land use to flood risk. A scenario-based modeling approach was developed to study the Rwampara catchment in Kigali, Rwanda. Two scenarios, namely the implementation of the Kigali Master Plan and the breakdown of current planning systems, were simulated to project urban growth for the year 2026. These projections were generated using an integrated cellular automata urban growth model and the openLISEM flood model. The resulting urban pattern and flood depth maps were both compared to the 2008 baseline conditions. Simulation results show that the exposure of built-up land cover to flood is fifty times higher for the 2026 Breakdown Scenario than for the baseline, whereas the 2026 Zoning Scenario is almost virtually identical to baseline conditions. However, the total exposed built-up area for the Breakdown scenario is very small, at less than 2 %. The trajectory of effective planning in Kigali has created an urban structure that is resilient to risk; this result may call into question the potential of land use planning to improve resiliency in other Sub-Saharan African cities which lack these advantages.
|Title of host publication||Proceedings Dortmund Conference 2016 : Spatial patterns - structure, dynamic, planning, 22-23 February 2016, Dortmund, Germany.|
|Place of Publication||Essen|
|Publication status||Published - 22 Feb 2016|
|Event||Spatial Patterns, structure, dynamic planning: Proceedings of Dortmund conference 2016 : Spatial patterns - structure, dynamic, planning, 22-23 February 2016, Dortmund, Germany. - Essen|
Duration: 22 Feb 2016 → 23 Feb 2016
|Conference||Spatial Patterns, structure, dynamic planning|
|Period||22/02/16 → 23/02/16|