Value-Driven Risk Analysis of Coordination Models

Coordination processes are business processes that involve independent profit-and-loss responsible business actors who collectively provide something of value to a customer. Coordination processes are meant to be profitable for the business actors that execute them. However, because business actors are independent, there is also an increased risk of fraud. To compute profitability as well as quantify the risk of fraud, we need to attach value models to coordination process models. In this paper, we propose guidelines for deriving a value model from any coordination process model. Next, we show how our approach can be used to identify possibilities of fraud offered by a coordination process, as well as quantify the financial impact of known fraudulent processes. Finally, we discuss additional applications, such as identifying commercially superfluous tasks, or missing tasks needed to achieve a financially sustainable process.