Water supply in the long term: a risk assessment

Integrated water assessment studies are often confined to a study of physical aspects, considering the relation between surface and groundwater, water quantity and water quality, and between water, land and climate. The interaction between changes in the water system and socio-economic development is then left out of the analysis. The AQUA tool has been designed to analyse the dynamic interaction between long-term socio-economic development and changes in the water system. The implementation of different perspectives in the model allows for a perspective based scenario development and assessment of policy risks. The analytical results show that the integrated approach can improve the understanding of how water can be both an opportunity for and a barrier to development.