Where to Build-Back-Better? Analyzing changing risk for post-disaster reconstruction planning

Large scale disasters (e.g. earthquakes, tropical cyclones, and wildfires) cause wide-spread losses to buildings, damaging transportation, educational, health, industry, and agricultural infrastructure, leading to direct and indirect social and economic losses (EM_DAT,2018) . After years with large losses by earthquakes (e.g. 2008 China, 2010 Haiti, 2015 Nepal) 2017 was characterized by hurricanes and wildfires, causing a loss of 300 billion Euro (MunichRe, 2018). These events also have a large impact on the natural environment, and critically change the conditions related to vegetation, active processes and hydrology leading to new hazards or increased intensity and frequency of existing hazards (Figure 1). This aspect is often not fully considered in post-disaster reconstruction planning, leading to unfortunate new impacts and losses, and to what could be called “re-reconstruction planning”. Land-use planning is a critical action for Priority 4 of the Sendai framework “Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response and to “Build Back Better” in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction” (UNISDR, 2015).